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advisors often don ’ t know how to find it . But the pandemic has gotten many people rethinking their priorities . They might need help valuing their business , selling it and reinvesting the proceeds . You and your firm might be able to help .
7 . “ Who do you know that has recently gotten married ?” Regardless of their age , when people marry , their finances often need attention . Do two bankbooks become one ? Are the newlyweds keeping their finances separate ? There are financial planning issues that need to be discussed .
8 . “ Who do you know that is downsizing ?” Many people choose to simplify their lives as they get older . When their children move out and settle down , they decide to travel more and spend less time on home maintenance . This often means they will be buying a new place for less than the sale price of their current home . The extra money is likely to go into an income-producing asset . You can help with that .
“ Who do you know that has recently gotten married ?” regardless of their age , when people marry , their finances often need attention .
9 . “ Who do you know that is a new neighbor ?” If your client lives in a nice area , especially one that has grown in value , it means the people around them are doing pretty well , too , especially the newcomers . Maybe somebody new has moved into the area after trading up or moving from far away . Newcomers in such valuable areas need local services . That includes you .
10 . “ Who do you know that was recently downsized ?” It ’ s difficult when people are let go , especially older people . Your client might know someone in that situation and want to help . Maybe you and your client could both meet with this person , since two heads are better than one . Maybe you have some contacts who could help . You would want the same support if the roles were reversed . If you are able to help them find a new position , they might need your help to find a home for their rollover assets . ( But you don ’ t want to be the one who brings that up .)
Finally , there is always the question from the beginning of the story : “ Who do you know that won the lottery ?” Someone did and someone knows who they are !
Bryce SanderS is president of perceptive business solutions inc . He provides HnW client acquisition training for the financial services industry . His book Captivating the Wealthy Investor is available on amazon .
The Big Picture continued from page 18
acknowledges a lot of smart people have bought into the concept . Bitcoin has suffered two or three “ 70 % declines and come back stronger every time , so I ’ m not going to put a nail in it .”
That said , it ’ s highly risky and appears to be “ little more than a bookkeeping innovation .” Clients are no longer chattering and clamoring for it .
At some point , Connelly expects that the speculative parts of the economy will suffer their own deflation . The financial services business could well be ground zero . For example , Wells Fargo , the nation ’ s largest mortgage lender , recently announced plans to dramatically shrink its presence in that business .
Large pockets of the private equity and private credit markets , which have grown dramatically in the last decade , look particularly vulnerable , he thinks . This doesn ’ t mean that most private equity or credit investments are in trouble . But the business has enjoyed unbridled growth since the Great Recession and overtaken a huge share of business activity .
Connelly notes what happened the last time the Fed tried QT in 2018 ’ s fourth quarter . The stock market fell 19 %, Christmas retail sales collapsed , and junk bond issuance died , prompting the Fed to short-circuit its own tightening plans . So this time it wouldn ’ t be a shock if “ a lot of stuff could grind to a halt ,” he says .
Even though growth stocks recovered somewhat in July , the Nasdaq remained down about 17 % for 2022 as of mid-August . Some savvy strategists like Richard Bernstein of RBA think the rebound is a “ head fake .” Connelly harbors similar suspicions .
ESG , in his view , was the perfect marketing vehicle at the perfect time to keep the aging bull market going right through the pandemic . “ I ’ m not opposed to green investing ,” he says . “ I just think it is a sales gimmick .”
What he does find troubling is the way the energy and resource crisis is playing out , in his own Southwest backyard , Europe and elsewhere . The water shortage in Lake Mead and Lake Powell has been decades in the making . “ It ’ s shocking how little progress has been made ,” he notes .
The global goal of transitioning to a decarbonized energy infrastructure is laudable , but the planning has been atrocious . Ultimately , Europe ’ s gas crisis , stemming from its reliance on Russia , should be resolved “ in two or three years ,” but the citizenry didn ’ t need to suffer the way Europe may this winter or the Southwest will for the next decade . The sad truth is “ that ’ s how we deal with problems today .”
Connelly still considers himself a realist , not a pessimist . “ I ’ m believer that we will innovate and that there will still be growth ,” he says . “ But inflation makes growth and [ investment ] duration less attractive and the cost of doing business more difficult .”
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