FRONTLINE
Morgan Stanley’ s Wilson: Final Leg Of Bull Market Likely To End In 2029
The secular bull market in equities that began in 2011 is entering its final phase, in the view of Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley’ s chief investment officer and chief U. S. equity strategist.
Speaking on a webcast in late July hosted by Toronto-based Rosenberg Research, Wilson strongly suggested that this bull market would end in 2029, though he didn’ t pinpoint a specific date. These“ things usually end at the end of a decade,” he said in a clear reference to past bull markets in the 1920s and 1990s.
Most market strategists think the longterm bull market began in March 2009, when the S & P 500 hit 666, coinciding roughly with the end of the Great Financial Crisis. However, Wilson said that the S & P 500 didn’ t hit bottom when priced in terms of gold’ s purchasing power until 2011.
The coming three years are likely to look very different from the past three years, Wison told attendees.“ Ten stocks won’ t get you there,” he said.
Investors can expect the equity market to continue“ broadening out” amid rising volatility. Wilson said semiconductor stocks, which have soared over the last 12 months, have probably peaked.
He thinks that the median stock has more room to run than the overall market. But he also says the acceleration in corporate earnings on display now is likely to decelerate fairly dramatically next year. His models call for earnings in the S & P 500 to rise 25 % this year and 13 % in 2027, but the slowdown could be“ much worse.”
A growing chorus of bears have argued that most valuation metrics, including priceto-earnings multiples and the Shiller CAPE( cyclically adjusted price-earnings) ratio are at or near all-time highs. Wilson said that multiples for many stocks, including the Magnificent 7, peaked around October of 2025 and are already shrinking.
“ Multiple contraction has been worse for the Mag 7,” he said. Investors understand that“ their quality of earnings” is being questioned by the market, as their capital expenditures on AI infrastructure and data centers continue unabated, while dubious practices like the circular financing of vendors show no signs of slowing.
The idea that the market is“ ignoring” questionable accounting“ isn’ t true,” Wilson said. Most of the so-called hyperscalers— Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft, Oracle and Meta Platforms— have seen their multiples punished in 2026. In the short term, he believes these oversold stocks could be poised for a rebound.
During the webcast, Wilson repeatedly pointed to the wisdom of financial markets and seemed to imply his role as a strategist was to divine exactly what the market’ s signals really mean.“ PEs are the best forecaster,” he said, adding that a big deceleration in earnings is already priced in.
The quality of earnings is a key metric investors need to focus on in what could be the last leg of the bull market. One measure he is using is the capital expenditures-to-sales ratio.
“ The market is enforcing capital discipline,” he said. CEOs and other top executives at the hyperscalers are“ getting sick of seeing their stocks go down every day.”
Meanwhile, the market is moving and finding“ other things to do” as most Big Tech companies are no longer viewed as“ good stewards of capital.” Indeed, Wilson
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10 | FINANCIAL ADVISOR MAGAZINE | SEPTEMBER / OCTOBER 2026 WWW. FA-MAG. COM